China's economy continues to fly at a new starting point

In October 2020, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held, and the " proposals for the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives.
By 2035, China will basically realize socialist modernization, and become a prosperous, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful modern socialist country in the middle of this century.

Ni Ruchi
Consul General of People’s Republic of China in Erbil

In October 2020, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held, and the " proposals for the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035" was reviewed and passed, which means the launch of the 14thFive-Year Plan. What do the 13th Five-Year Plan and 14thFive-Year Plan mean? How will it affect the trend of China's economy? What is the outlook for China's economy?

I.China’s Five Year Plan

The Five-Year Plan (FYP), which is called "the Outline of the Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China”, sets goals and directions for the national economy development. Beginning with the 1st Five-Year Plan in 1953, until the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan in 2020, FYP has almost accompanied the entire process of the People’s Republic and played an important role in the country's economic and social development.

China's FYP can be divided into three stages, each of which has completed its corresponding historical mission. The first stage is from the 1st FYP to the 5thFYP (1953-1980). At this stage, China implemented a planned economic system, laid the foundation for industrialization, completed socialist transformation and consolidated national defense security. The second stage is from the 6thFYP to the 10th FYP (1981-2005). During this period, China implemented reform and opening up and gradually shifted to a socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics, so that social productivity, overall national strength, and people's living standards improved. The third stage is from the 11th FYP to the 13th FYP (2006-2020). During this period, the content of FYP was more enrichment, pay more attention to economicrestructuringand quality upgrading, and promote all-round development, including transformation of economic growth mode, coordinated and balanced development between different regions, strengthening innovation, deepening reform and opening up, improving people's livelihood, and building a harmonious society.

II.The achievement of 13th FYP

The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) is the first FYP after China's economic development has entered a new normal. It not only aimed at completing the tough task of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, but also undertook complex and arduous transformation tasks. To this end, the 13thFYP highlights innovation and reform, and implements the new development concept of innovation, coordination, greenness, openness, and sharing.

After five years of unremitting efforts, China's economy has made a huge leap during the 13th FYP period. In terms of economic development, China’s GDP is expected to exceed 100 trillion yuan ($14.89 trillion) by the end of this year, accounting for 16% of the global economy and 30% to the world’s economic growth; the status of agriculture as a foundation was intensified, the industry continues to grow, the value of the service industry accounts for 53.9% of GDP, and the contribution of consumption to the economy exceeds 60%. In terms of infrastructure and technology, the total mileage of high-speed rail exceeds 35,000 kilometers, accounting for two-thirds of the global high-speed rail mileage, which is chasing after the length of earth equator. The highway mileage exceeds 140,000 kilometers, ranking first in the world; 5G commercialization is progressing steadily, and big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence(AI) are developing rapidly; In 2019, China ranked 14th in the Global Innovation Index, and the total expenditure of scientific research ranked second in the world. Manned spaceflight, lunar exploration, quantum communications and other technologies have made significant progress. In terms of people’s livelihood, per capita GDP exceeded $10,000, and per capita disposable income reached 30,733 yuan($4800), further narrowing the gap with high-income countries. Decisive achievements was made in poverty alleviation, 55.75 million rural people have been lifted out of poverty in five years, and the per capita income of poor households increased from 3,416 yuan in 2015 to 9,808 yuan in 2019; the urbanization rate rose to 60.6%; the world's largest social insurance system has been built, with basic medical insurance covering more than 1.3 billion people, basic pension insurance covering nearly 1 billion people. In terms of environmental protection, 82% of the 332 main cities have good air quality days, and the overall ecological environment has improved.

III.The 14th FYP

At present, China's victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects is in sight, and it is about to embark on a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country. The 14thFive-Year Plan (2021-2025) carrying the historical task sets 6 major development goals. 1- new results in economic development, sustained and healthy economic development on the basis of quality and efficiency, and construction of a modern economic system; 2- new steps in reform and opening up, and basically forming a higher level of new opening system; 3- improving social civilization and people’s literacy, further enhancing the influence of Chinese culture and strengthening the cohesion of the Chinese nation; 4- new progress in the construction of ecological civilization, and the environment will be continuously improved; 5- reaching a new level of people’s livelihood and well-being, completing the multi-level social insurance system, and consolidate the results of poverty alleviation; 6- improving the effectiveness of governance, and completing the law-basedsocialist democratic, and achieving major progress in the modernization of national defense and the military.

The focus of the 14thFYP is "new"-a new stage, a new concept, and a new pattern. The first is to promote high-quality development. Development is not only embodied in numbers and quantities, but is to meet the people's growing needs for a better life, solve the contradictions of uneven and insufficient development, and enhance the country's overall strength and ability to withstand risks. The second is to accelerate efforts to establish a new dual-cycle development pattern with the domestic cycle as the mainstay and the domestic and international cycles reinforcing each other. After the 1980s, China embraced the world market, formed a "world factory" development model, and rapidly improved its economic strength. However, in recent years, as the trend of anti-globalization was intensified, the global political and economic environment is changing. Therefore, the 14th FYP puts foothold in domestic, to expand domestic demand and form a virtuous cycle of the national economy. But it never means a closed domestic cycle, but an open domestic and international double cycle. China's door to openness will never be closed. The third is to deepen reform and opening, The "Proposal” mentioned "reform" and "opening-up" more than 20 times, pledging to establish new institutions for an open economy at a higher level, promote high quality BRI cooperation, and pursue win-win international cooperation.

IV.China in 2035

In 2035, China will basically realize socialist modernization. The "Proposal" outlines the long-term goal of basically realizing socialist modernization in 2035 from 9 aspects. 1.China's economic and technological strength, and composite national strength will increase significantly. A new stride will be made in the per capita income of urban and rural residents. Making major breakthroughs in core technologies in key areas, China will become a global leader in innovation; 2. New industrialization, IT application, urbanization, and agricultural modernization will be basically achieved; 3. The modernization of China's system and capacity for governance will be basically achieved. The people's rights to participate and to develop as equals will be adequately protected. The rule of law for the country, the government, and society will be basically in place; 4. China will become a strong country in culture, education, talent, sports and health. The well-rounded development of all people and social etiquette and civility will be significantly enhanced. China's cultural soft power will grow much stronger; 5. Eco-friendly ways of work and life will be advanced, and there will be a fundamental improvement in the environment; 6. The opening-up will reach a new stage with substantial growth of the country's strengths for participating in international economic cooperation and competition; 7. The per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries. Disparities in urban-rural development, between regions, and in living standards will be significantly reduced; 8. The implementation of the Peaceful China initiative will be promoted to a higher level. The modernization of national defense and the military will be basically achieved; 9. More notable and substantial progress will be achieved in promoting well-rounded human development and achieving common prosperity for everyone.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China cannot develop without the world, and the world cannot develop without China. On the road of reform and opening up, China has been deeply integrated with the world economy and has achieved 40 years of rapid development. Under the guidance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, we have reason to believe that China's economy will continue to take off to benefit the Chinese people and the people of the whole world. By 2035, China will basically realize socialist modernization, and become a prosperous, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful modern socialist country in the middle of this century.

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